Fertility rates are continuing to fall globally, declining below “replacement levels” in many countries. This means populations are not producing enough children to replace existing generations.
According to a recent article in the New York Times, the eventual result of this trend could be human extinction, although that would be a long way off. However, sometime in the near future we could see more immediate impacts, such as fewer “working age” people and subsequently higher taxes and deteriorating public services.
As people age and our population declines, economic and social implications could follow. But why are fertility rates falling? And why should we care?
Socioeconomic Factors
Most politicians, policy makers and the public have a general understanding of the lower global total fertility rate. Some governments are even offering (or thinking about offering) more incentives for having children.
In the US, the Trump administration has discussed giving $5000 “baby bonuses” for having kids, as well as a National Medal of Motherhood for women who have six or more children. The main problem with this is that $5000 wouldn’t put a dent in the cost of raising a child. And given that right-wing priorities around fertility are often tied up with anti-feminist and nationalist agendas, a medal of honour would be ineffective at best.
Under patriarchy we have leaders who incentivize through disempowerment rather than empowerment, and some modern women have seen where that can lead and are opting out. (For an extreme, albeit fictional, example, look at The Handmaid’s Tale.)
As journalist Amanda Taub writes in the New York Times article, these incentives are just not enough. Raising a kid is hard and expensive, so people, particularly women, have started “giving up”. If a sacrifice is socially valuable, we should treat the people offering that sacrifice with respect. But women and other people who bear and raise children continue to be undervalued around the world. They continue to be exploited for their free labour.
In most countries there are inadequate parental leave, childcare support and work/life balance policies, as well as gender inequality in caregiving responsibilities. Even in Nordic countries like Sweden, where they have comparatively excellent parental leave and state-subsidized childcare, fertility rates are dropping due to the high cost of food and housing.
Lifestyle Shifts
While financial concerns are at the forefront of this global fertility decline, cultural shifts around personal freedoms, marriage, and career also appear to be influencing factors. Women have gained many freedoms and rights over the past century, and with these liberties come more options in terms of living an enriching life, however one defines it.
Fertility intention surveys tell us that even if money wasn’t an issue, people would still want fewer children. We have more access than ever to the frightening signs of global instability, and in times of crisis, people avoid making life changing decisions. This was made clear during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when people polled said they were increasingly unsure about having kids.
Health Considerations
The fact that many people are having kids later in life means fewer children are being born overall, even with the help of fertility treatments like IUI and IVF. And while access to contraception and abortion have been an undeniable victory in terms of bodily autonomy, they have also contributed to lower birth rates.
According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), there are hundreds of millions of people worldwide who want to have children, but along with facing the prohibitive associated costs, they have not found a suitable partner. Women have gained more personal freedom and choice in who they marry and conceive with, and when you add the rise of the toxic “manosphere” and incel culture to the mix, it makes sense that people aren’t pairing up and having children as readily as before.
In fact, in a recent UNFPA survey, one fifth of the fourteen thousand people in fourteen different countries surveyed said they haven’t had or don’t expect to have kids. These countries make up about one third of the world’s population.
So what can and should be done about the fertility crisis, if anything?
In a 2025 article by PBS, experts say trying to manage fertility rates long term is a tough task. A one-time $5000 baby bonus is far too little to make a difference, as proven by countries like Singapore and Germany, where similar incentives have failed to bring the total fertility rate up above replacement level. Policies like affordable childcare, improved parental leave, and financial support for in vitro fertilization are more likely to have an impact.
In an article for the BBC, Prof Stuart Geitel-Basten, a demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, says the public needs to avoid panic, because low fertility rates can be used by leaders as an excuse to implement nationalist, anti-migrant, and gender conservative policies.
Furthermore, not everyone believes a decline in fertility rates is a bad thing. Clare Menozzi, chief of demographic analysis at the U.N.’s Population Division, says that a smaller global population could help with poverty and unsustainable consumption and production, and improve economic and environmental outcomes. Many others agree, like demographer Jennifer Sciubba, who encourages accepting and adapting to declining fertility rates.
According to experts like Sciubba, the focus should be on making policies that support families, so that people can have the children they truly want, with the tools and resources they need for those kids to flourish.